I majored in Intl Politics in the 1990s and this excellent and concise Substack writer basically condensed my entire undergraduate education in one essay (with the added benefit of hindsight of course). Superb historical summary and analysis of possible future developments. Well done!
Let us consider what Britain needs to defeat the likes of Reform and its Trumpian bootlicker Farage. Certainly not a so-called reform of the benefits system, which even the government admits will push over 100,000 people into poverty by the next election. Where is the confidence to state the obvious fact that most of our current financial and economic problems are the direct result of Brexit. Nearly 60% of the voting population agree that Brexit was a mistake yet Starmer is afraid to even mention the possibility that we might rejoin the EU. We lost by calculation £100 billion in trade and £40 billion in tax revenues as a result of Brexit. Most of the funding problems of the Treasury are directly related to those losses. Until someone has the courage to campaign for re-entry to the EU then the present problems will remain with us and may get worse when push comes to shove on the defence budget.
Amen - the government's cowardice on Brexit has been very disappointing. And the economic mess will alas help Farage, which will make things infinitely worse. TGA's articles have been a sanity saver but how many others agree with him is probably depressingly small. Thank goodness for him though!
Great essay. With the anti-liberal right becoming so entrenched across much of the EU, I suspect the polarisation between them & liberals might be with us for decades to come. We are in this for the long haul.
I join your other reader critics in commending you for this precise and detailed discussion of the present European political world. Although I haven’t studied “present” European history, I do try to keep up on what is going on and you have certainly filled in certain critical political areas.
However I do have two main issues or quibbles with your prognosis. One, while you are absolutely correct about our American slow withdrawal from internal European political affairs, with the exception of Trump’s loud ignorant pronouncements, you did not mention the sudden awakening of the sleeping giant of Canada which has cleverly replaced the US in both economic and political actions. They are our quieter and more polite northern cousins, but they have certainly seized the moment to actively replace the US’s traditional military role as supplier and big brother of military hardware. Good for them.
Second, I was a little surprised that you seemed to dismiss Ukraine’s valiant fight to preserve the physical integrity they won in 1991. Why should Ukraine give any of its land to Russia, newly weakened by sanctions and the war Putin thought would be over in three days? The Ukrainians have given Europe the spark it needed to see the EU as a compact of neighbors, but with obnoxious ones to deal with on occasion. The joint efforts to supply Ukraine with weapons because of the realization that they would be next in Putin’s grand design to recreate the USSR has stimulated impressive coordination in light of Ukraine’s tough and brave defense.
But that said, please continue to explain more of the inner workings of modern European political processes. The stimulation of ideas and argument help me forget the sad state of American ideas today.
Very good article, Well reasoned and cogently expressed. Pleased to see you picked up on the housing unaffordabilty issue.
However, one point of divergence is the notion of ´charisma'. You write: "Tusk, who has made an extraordinary personal contribution to both Polish and European affairs, now needs to find a charismatic successor to fight the next election."
I would say Tusk needs a convincing, confident, comptent and courageous successor.
Charisma fades (viz. Tony Blair) whereas courage, confidence and comptence gets the necessary things done
Think electorates, nothwithstanding the supposed current levels of support for Farage in the UK, have become wise to, and dismissive of charisma. If not now, they will be the time the elections come aroud.
This essay was interesting, intelligent, informative and understandable. Having read it makes me a better thinker regarding the advent of the new world order 🇺🇸🇺🇸🌮
Timothy Garton Ash's compelling piece contrasts two Europes: one liberal, internationalist, and pro-integration; the other illiberal, nationalist, and anti-European. Yet this analysis fails to grasp today's political realities. Illiberal forces already have the upper hand, with mainstream parties either stealing far-right ideas (as acknowledged by the author) or governing directly with these forces in Italy, Slovakia, Croatia, Belgium, Finland, Hungary, and the Netherlands. This reality extends to the EU itself under EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Although Brussels champions multilateralism, its policies increasingly resemble Trump's America. The EU's Migration and Asylum Pact portrays asylum-seekers as security threats, adopting Trump's border reasoning. Von der Leyen's Commission has rolled back Green Deal initiatives - a deregulatory shift reminiscent of Trump's EPA. The EPP fights the same battle against NGOs that Trump does, using identical "foreign interference" rhetoric.
Most tellingly, governance styles have converged around authoritarian efficiency. Trump's executive orders bypassing Congress parallel the Commission's omnibus packages, sidelining the European Parliament.
What Garton Ash presents as opposing forces have already merged: the so-called "liberal" mainstream has adopted its opponents' agenda, turning the EU from a beacon of liberalism into an unwitting supporter of Trump. The liberal, internationalist Europe that once served as a counterbalance to illiberal trends no longer exists.
"It looks like Vienna or Kraków, but this is a city in a country at war. Lviv, May 2025. (Author’s photo.) "
I live in L'viv, a beautiful, vibrant, cultured and safe city. The antithesis of UK.
Krakow is increasingly dirty with Starbucks, MacDonald's etc, and all that the mass tourism (stag, hen and gap) brings to unravel beauty, cultured and the lives of ordinary people. Hostels, AirBnB etc.
Look at protests in Spain.
I pray that L'viv does not "go Krakow". But given the eviction of traders from a city centre Rynok "market", and replacement of stalls and livelihoods by concrete and a modern super market (whose parent company trades also in Russia) and regular despoilation through wilful neglect of historic builds to allow their replacement by concrete blocks, "Avalon" and the mayor are ensuring that with bulging pockets L'viv most likely will "go Krakow".
I wouldn't consider Europe's pivot toward liberalism "bright", but "dark".
There's not much bright about increased feminism. Widespread promiscuity. Increased births out of wedlock, teenage pregnancy, STD rates, divorce rates, single parenthood, sexual deviancy, anxiety, depression, suicidal ideation, and cynicism.
Conservatism is the only thing standing in the way of this — and we should uphold it.
I majored in Intl Politics in the 1990s and this excellent and concise Substack writer basically condensed my entire undergraduate education in one essay (with the added benefit of hindsight of course). Superb historical summary and analysis of possible future developments. Well done!
Let us consider what Britain needs to defeat the likes of Reform and its Trumpian bootlicker Farage. Certainly not a so-called reform of the benefits system, which even the government admits will push over 100,000 people into poverty by the next election. Where is the confidence to state the obvious fact that most of our current financial and economic problems are the direct result of Brexit. Nearly 60% of the voting population agree that Brexit was a mistake yet Starmer is afraid to even mention the possibility that we might rejoin the EU. We lost by calculation £100 billion in trade and £40 billion in tax revenues as a result of Brexit. Most of the funding problems of the Treasury are directly related to those losses. Until someone has the courage to campaign for re-entry to the EU then the present problems will remain with us and may get worse when push comes to shove on the defence budget.
Amen - the government's cowardice on Brexit has been very disappointing. And the economic mess will alas help Farage, which will make things infinitely worse. TGA's articles have been a sanity saver but how many others agree with him is probably depressingly small. Thank goodness for him though!
So comprehensive and well argued!
Great essay. With the anti-liberal right becoming so entrenched across much of the EU, I suspect the polarisation between them & liberals might be with us for decades to come. We are in this for the long haul.
I join your other reader critics in commending you for this precise and detailed discussion of the present European political world. Although I haven’t studied “present” European history, I do try to keep up on what is going on and you have certainly filled in certain critical political areas.
However I do have two main issues or quibbles with your prognosis. One, while you are absolutely correct about our American slow withdrawal from internal European political affairs, with the exception of Trump’s loud ignorant pronouncements, you did not mention the sudden awakening of the sleeping giant of Canada which has cleverly replaced the US in both economic and political actions. They are our quieter and more polite northern cousins, but they have certainly seized the moment to actively replace the US’s traditional military role as supplier and big brother of military hardware. Good for them.
Second, I was a little surprised that you seemed to dismiss Ukraine’s valiant fight to preserve the physical integrity they won in 1991. Why should Ukraine give any of its land to Russia, newly weakened by sanctions and the war Putin thought would be over in three days? The Ukrainians have given Europe the spark it needed to see the EU as a compact of neighbors, but with obnoxious ones to deal with on occasion. The joint efforts to supply Ukraine with weapons because of the realization that they would be next in Putin’s grand design to recreate the USSR has stimulated impressive coordination in light of Ukraine’s tough and brave defense.
But that said, please continue to explain more of the inner workings of modern European political processes. The stimulation of ideas and argument help me forget the sad state of American ideas today.
Very good article, Well reasoned and cogently expressed. Pleased to see you picked up on the housing unaffordabilty issue.
However, one point of divergence is the notion of ´charisma'. You write: "Tusk, who has made an extraordinary personal contribution to both Polish and European affairs, now needs to find a charismatic successor to fight the next election."
I would say Tusk needs a convincing, confident, comptent and courageous successor.
Charisma fades (viz. Tony Blair) whereas courage, confidence and comptence gets the necessary things done
Think electorates, nothwithstanding the supposed current levels of support for Farage in the UK, have become wise to, and dismissive of charisma. If not now, they will be the time the elections come aroud.
My goodness. So you’re at one with the Taliban in Afghanistan?
Agree!
This essay was interesting, intelligent, informative and understandable. Having read it makes me a better thinker regarding the advent of the new world order 🇺🇸🇺🇸🌮
Agree with the TGA essay in case that is not clear!
Excellent essay, so comprehensive, so historically detailed! Thank you very much for writing it!
Timothy Garton Ash's compelling piece contrasts two Europes: one liberal, internationalist, and pro-integration; the other illiberal, nationalist, and anti-European. Yet this analysis fails to grasp today's political realities. Illiberal forces already have the upper hand, with mainstream parties either stealing far-right ideas (as acknowledged by the author) or governing directly with these forces in Italy, Slovakia, Croatia, Belgium, Finland, Hungary, and the Netherlands. This reality extends to the EU itself under EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Although Brussels champions multilateralism, its policies increasingly resemble Trump's America. The EU's Migration and Asylum Pact portrays asylum-seekers as security threats, adopting Trump's border reasoning. Von der Leyen's Commission has rolled back Green Deal initiatives - a deregulatory shift reminiscent of Trump's EPA. The EPP fights the same battle against NGOs that Trump does, using identical "foreign interference" rhetoric.
Most tellingly, governance styles have converged around authoritarian efficiency. Trump's executive orders bypassing Congress parallel the Commission's omnibus packages, sidelining the European Parliament.
What Garton Ash presents as opposing forces have already merged: the so-called "liberal" mainstream has adopted its opponents' agenda, turning the EU from a beacon of liberalism into an unwitting supporter of Trump. The liberal, internationalist Europe that once served as a counterbalance to illiberal trends no longer exists.
To know more on the subtle trumpification of political europe: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/16/europe-trump-putin-eu-ursula-von-der-leyen
Yours sincerely,
Alberto Alemanno
Jean Monnet Professor of EU Law
HEC Paris
"It looks like Vienna or Kraków, but this is a city in a country at war. Lviv, May 2025. (Author’s photo.) "
I live in L'viv, a beautiful, vibrant, cultured and safe city. The antithesis of UK.
Krakow is increasingly dirty with Starbucks, MacDonald's etc, and all that the mass tourism (stag, hen and gap) brings to unravel beauty, cultured and the lives of ordinary people. Hostels, AirBnB etc.
Look at protests in Spain.
I pray that L'viv does not "go Krakow". But given the eviction of traders from a city centre Rynok "market", and replacement of stalls and livelihoods by concrete and a modern super market (whose parent company trades also in Russia) and regular despoilation through wilful neglect of historic builds to allow their replacement by concrete blocks, "Avalon" and the mayor are ensuring that with bulging pockets L'viv most likely will "go Krakow".
....this is where "go Krakow" , and other "agendas" lead:
https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelmohr/p/paris-is-not-paradise?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=223crf
I wouldn't consider Europe's pivot toward liberalism "bright", but "dark".
There's not much bright about increased feminism. Widespread promiscuity. Increased births out of wedlock, teenage pregnancy, STD rates, divorce rates, single parenthood, sexual deviancy, anxiety, depression, suicidal ideation, and cynicism.
Conservatism is the only thing standing in the way of this — and we should uphold it.