I think Trump is likely to enact policies that do not help the people that voted for him, that some of these policies change European geopolitics (as you suggest). I am more concerned that the foundations of liberalism/enlightenment seems to be shaking with the rise of a new kind of authoritarianism.
An excellent summary of the problem. I suggest it is time to move on to the practicalities of potential solutions. How does Europe improve its defence and security without the US shield? Spending on defence is an input not an output. How many more people are needed to serve? How much more equipment is required? There has long been an implied assumption in the public discourse in U.K. that it alone is responsible for the nations territorial defence; this has always been a false assumption. So how is the burden of European defence to be shared amongst the nations? Given that NATO is a US dominated alliance it maybe that a new structure of European defence has to be established rapidly. In this regard the political inertia in France and Germany and the obstruction of Hungary in the EU, may prove fatal. Nevertheless the problem is well defined let’s get on with solutions.
There is a possibility that Trump will seek a bargain in Ukraine where he has the opportunity to test all the latest weaponry in the US arsenal at battle ground environment. I am amazed that all NATO countries have not seized this opportunity. We are certainly learning a lot from the aerial drones used by both sides. If Trump forces a ceasefire and enforced current borders, both sides can re-establish their infrastructure and settle their forces for a future resumption when Trump is replaced. You mention the 1918 truce between the Germans and Lenin’s Russia. This was a major concession by the Russians of Polish lands taken by the Czars during the 18th century. It is currently the Western border of Russia. The truce released a million German soldiers for the final onslaught on the Western front. It might have succeeded if the soldiers had been fed. It failed because the German soldiers stopped whenever they found food to eat. They spent three days in Amiens eating the food they found in the shops while the Allies recovered.
Wonderful column and it makes me worry.
I think Trump is likely to enact policies that do not help the people that voted for him, that some of these policies change European geopolitics (as you suggest). I am more concerned that the foundations of liberalism/enlightenment seems to be shaking with the rise of a new kind of authoritarianism.
An excellent summary of the problem. I suggest it is time to move on to the practicalities of potential solutions. How does Europe improve its defence and security without the US shield? Spending on defence is an input not an output. How many more people are needed to serve? How much more equipment is required? There has long been an implied assumption in the public discourse in U.K. that it alone is responsible for the nations territorial defence; this has always been a false assumption. So how is the burden of European defence to be shared amongst the nations? Given that NATO is a US dominated alliance it maybe that a new structure of European defence has to be established rapidly. In this regard the political inertia in France and Germany and the obstruction of Hungary in the EU, may prove fatal. Nevertheless the problem is well defined let’s get on with solutions.
The only good thing about Trump's election is that Europe will have to get its shit together tosave themselves, if not Ukraine.
Thank you for this pessimistic but clearsighted comment!
Alexandra Gräfin Lambsdorff from Germany
There is a possibility that Trump will seek a bargain in Ukraine where he has the opportunity to test all the latest weaponry in the US arsenal at battle ground environment. I am amazed that all NATO countries have not seized this opportunity. We are certainly learning a lot from the aerial drones used by both sides. If Trump forces a ceasefire and enforced current borders, both sides can re-establish their infrastructure and settle their forces for a future resumption when Trump is replaced. You mention the 1918 truce between the Germans and Lenin’s Russia. This was a major concession by the Russians of Polish lands taken by the Czars during the 18th century. It is currently the Western border of Russia. The truce released a million German soldiers for the final onslaught on the Western front. It might have succeeded if the soldiers had been fed. It failed because the German soldiers stopped whenever they found food to eat. They spent three days in Amiens eating the food they found in the shops while the Allies recovered.
Long past time for Europe to become the dominant power in NATO. Why create an entirely new defense structure when a robust one is already in place?