World, prepare for President Trump 2.0 - unless Biden stands aside for the next election
+ Crucial elections in Slovakia & Poland + Fabulous Ferrara (and Browning's Last Duchess)
History of the Present (fortnight ending 7 October 2023)
Unless Joe Biden for someone younger in next year's election, the world must prepare for President Trump 2.0
During two months spent in America this summer, I kept asking every journalist, academic and analyst I met one simple question: ‘Who will be the next president of the United States?’ The response was usually the same. First there was a distinct hesitation, then they said ‘Well, probably Joe Biden, but…’.
What followed the 'but' was a long list of concerns, partly about deeper trends but mainly about how old and frail the 80-year-old president looks. Often, the conversation ended with my interlocutor saying it would be better if Biden stood aside, to let a younger candidate turn the age card against the 77-year old Donald Trump.
Biden has been a good president of the United States. Although the retreat from Afghanistan was chaotic, he dealt with the Covid pandemic well and is handling the war in Ukraine fairly well. He is presiding over a remarkably vibrant economy, with New Deal-style public spending accelerating a green transition and creating jobs. But if he stumbles – physically, mentally or politically – during the gruelling marathon that is a US presidential campaign, and let's Trump back in, that’s the only thing Joe Biden will be remembered for.
In a recent NBC poll, Trump and Biden were neck-and-neck, scoring 46% each. Any one of a number of factors unrelated to the characters and performances of the two candidates might swing such a close election. In the country's hyperpolarised media environment, many Republican voters simply don't see that the economy is doing well. AI will add to the already large possibilities of misinformation, with Vladimir Putin certainly eager to tip the scales in favour of Trump. Third candidate initiatives, such as the well-intentioned centrist initiative No Labels and the intellectual activist Cornel West's progressive-environmentalist campaign, are likely to take more votes from the Democrats than from the Republicans.
Most worryingly for the Democrats, there's a trend of Black, Hispanic and other non-white voters shifting from Democrat to Republican, and especially from Biden to Trump. There are probably, sociological and historical explanations for this, as well as the strange appeal of Trump himself, but there's little doubt that Biden's age and frailty play a role.
In a recent poll, three out of every four Americans said Biden is too old for a second term – at the end of which he would be 86. Only half those asked expressed the same concern about Trump. I spoke to four individuals who had seen president Biden at close quarters in recent months. They said he was mentally fine, but physically showing his age. One commented on the way his voice sometimes faded to almost inaudible at the end of a sentence.
All this will be ruthlessly exposed in the 24/7 media coverage of a presidential election campaign. A single fall from an election rally stage by Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole played a part in his defeat in 1996. And Dole was a mere spring chicken of 73, in a more sedate media environment.
Biden comes with one other liability. Because of his age, unusual attention will be focused on his running mate, who might have to step into the hot seat. But vice president Kamala Harris is not a great electoral asset and hardly convinces as a possible 'leader of the free world'. Despite the initial excitement around her, she has seemed marginal to the presidency, has a popular approval rating lower even than Biden’s and has made almost no impact on the world stage.
Of course Trump has huge liabilities too – above all, the multiple lawsuits that are taking much of his time and campaign funding. If Jack Smith, the prosecutor in the central case concerning possible fraud in the 2020 presidential election, is as effective as some think he is, Trump might even be in prison when Americans vote next November. Yet, astonishingly to the outsider, there's little evidence that these prosecutions have so far seriously damaged his election prospects.
Obviously there are also risks associated with Biden stepping aside at this late stage. Some observers expressed a concern that the fragile rainbow coalition of Democratic party could tear itself apart if set to find a new candidate. A former congressman disagreed, pointing to the disciplining effect of the threat of Trump. Certainly there are credible contenders of a younger generation, such as Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro (who would then be the first Jewish president), Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer (who would then be the first female president), or California governor Gavin Newsom.
Not only would they turn the age card against Trump; they would also rejuvenate the image of the United States in the world. At the moment we Europeans contemplate with astonishment what looks to us like a Brezhnevite gerontocracy in Washington. Biden, 80 going on 81. Trump, 77. Republican senate leader Mitch McConnell, 81, freezing for half a minute like an old desktop with a bad Wi-Fi connection. Former house speaker Nancy Pelosi, running again at the age of 83. Really? Give us a break.
One thing, however, is clear: the only person who can make this decision is Joe Biden, together with his wife Jill. If it's to happen, it would be best it happens fast, so younger candidates can declare themselves, raise sufficient funds, organise national campaigns, and then one of them can be selected and choose a credible running mate. 'It must be before Thanksgiving!' one longtime observer of US politics exclaimed. That's just two months away.
At this point, some American readers might be huffing 'Who's this Brit telling us what we ought to do?' All I would say in reply is: sorry, but it's not only your future that this contest will decide.
There's a bunch of interesting elections coming up on our side of the Atlantic: a crucial Polish election next month, which may determine the future of a fragile democracy; European Parliament elections next June, which may see a sharp turn to the populist right; a British election, which may see the post-Brexit UK returning to something vaguely resembling sanity; perhaps even a Ukrainian presidential election. None of these European elections will be as consequential for Europe as this American one.
A second Trump presidency would be a disaster for the United States. It would also be a catastrophe for Ukraine, an emergency for Europe and a crisis of the West. If Biden steps aside now, democrats everywhere will honour him, while the US Democrats can choose a younger candidate to see off Trump – and perhaps even inspire the world again with a sense of American dynamism.
This commentary first appeared in the Guardian, 29 September 2023, and provoked a fair amount of lively debate. If quoting on social media, please use this link
Bad news (and a little good) from Central Europe
Slovakia…
The election victory of Robert Fico on 30 September is bad news for Slovakia, Ukraine and Europe. Fico has said he will not send another round of ammunition to Ukraine. Viktor Orbán has welcomed a fellow Eurosceptic, populist-nationalist and Putin-friendly Central European ally inside the EU. This result also reflects the state of public opinion revealed in a Globsec poll earlier this year, when more than half the Slovaks asked blamed Ukraine and/or the West for the war in Ukraine. Globsec’s analysts argue that Russian disinformation plays a significant part in this extraordinary misperception of what's happening just over the country’s eastern border.
A silver lining: from a standing start, having had no MPs in the last Slovak parliament, the Progressive Slovakia party, led by Michal Šimečka, came second, with roughly 18% of the vote and 32 MPs. That's a remarkable achievement for an explicitly Progressive party in a socially conservative country with such a view of the war next door.
…and Poland…
Concerning though the Slovak result is, it's not half as significant as the Polish election coming up on Sunday 15 October. This is the most important election for Polish democracy since 1989. A third term for the nationalist populist Law and Justice party (PiS) would mean a further erosion of democracy in the largest and most influential country in Central Europe.
The opposition organised a ‘march of a million hearts’ in Warsaw and other major cities on Sunday 1 October, which has given energy and hope to the opposition parties. But the opposition is not united, so that a grouping of two smaller opposition parties – the so-called Third Way alliance - risks falling below the 8% needed for it to get any seats in parliament. Between them, opposition parties have a larger share of the vote than PiS, but in terms of the likely distribution of parliamentary seats it’s very hard to call.
I will be there on election day, as I was for the semi-free election on 4 June 1989 that effectively spelt the end of communism in Poland. I don't believe this one will spell the end of democracy in Poland – but only a change of government will guarantee a good future for democracy there.
Fabulous Ferrara (and Browning’s Last Duchess)
The Italian edition of Homelands - Patrie - took me to the exquisite North Italian town of Ferrara, for a discussion at the literary festival organised by the magazine Internazionale. I had a conversation on stage with the Italian war correspondent Cecilia Sala, who has reported powerfully from the frontline in Ukraine. Later, I heard the Ukrainian writer Kateryna Mishchenko admonish the audience ‘you can't be anti-fascists unless you fight the fascists’.
Unconnected to current developments, a particular thrill for me was to see the place where the presumed original of Robert Browning’s ‘My Last Duchess’, Lorenza de’ Medici, was allegedly done away with on the orders of Duke Alfonso II (‘This grew; I gave commands;/Then all smiles stopped together’.) She was 13 when she was married in this dynastic alliance and just 16 when she died.
Here she is:
And here is Alfonso II as a young man:
Browning’s poem ensures that I, at least, can't resist seeing cruelty in that face.
I’ve subsequently been in Ukraine, and next week will be in Turkey before going to Poland for the election. More on that next time. Greetings from Kraków airport. (This newsletter was finished before the horrifying violence in southern Israel erupted on Saturday 7 October.)
As I wrote in my (truncated) comment in the Guardian to your piece on Biden, I think it is completely wrong because it ignores the realities of US presidential politics. Unfortunately our pre-election campaigning takes a long time and is extremely expensive. There is not an obvious front-runner to replace Biden and the first primaries are only a few months away. No one to my knowledge has started up a campaign staff, worked to get donors, etc. Because there is no obvious choice, replacing Biden will result in a frenzied fight between contenders, which always results in bad feelings (e.g., Hillary and Bernie). It will waste a lot of money on advertising for different candidates that could be used in the general election, and it will take focus away from Trump. How will black voters feel if Kamala gets put aside? The Republicans will gleefully use attack lines from the primaries in the general. There are huge advantages to the incumbent supported by a united party.
Biden, while not perfect, has done about as good a job as anyone could wish. The ONLY reason to dump him is age, and that's not good enough. He's beaten Trump once, and he'll do it again.
Biden has done a much better job than you suggest. Plus, decency, humility, and pragmatism count. A “bottom up, middle out” policy is a good one, and Biden has built a solid record, with a slim majority, on that front. The other Democratic candidates are weak to non-existent. Your fundamental argument is about his age--but aging has its benefits, too. And to label the elders as a “Brezhnev-like gerontocracy” is unfair and not really very smart… or fully grammatical. Finally, whatever the polls say, Biden won bigly last time, and, with his incredible record in adding jobs and boosting wages, he should win by an even bigger margin next time. Trump will be hobbled (or better) by a dozen lawsuits.
Of course, there are some hidden assumptions behind my optimism, including one that Americans are still fair-minded and open to reasonable persuasion. If you don’t believe that, how can you get up in the morning? The challenge, for Democrats, is the reasonable persuading part.