Notes to the Future 1 (week ending 19 November 2022). Here's the first of my promised notes, chronicling the history of the present, mainly in, for and about Europe. I'll try to do them weekly, but won't always succeed. (I might even occasionally need a holiday). These are what it says on the tin – Notes, not finished, considered prose. The first part is devoted to general developments in or relevant to Europe, the second part to stuff I've been doing myself. The whole thing is an experiment, so I may vary the format as I go along. All feedback welcome. TGA
From liberation in Kherson to missiles landing in Poland
Photo: A young soldier liberating Kherson embraces his kneeling grandmother (see video from tweet embedded in first paragraph)
The week began with those inspiring scenes of the liberation of Kherson. 1945 again, but this time the good moments. The CNN clip linked to from this tweet will go straight into the history archives, with CNN's Nic Robertson surrounded by ecstatic crowds. 'We feel free, we are not slaves, we are Ukrainians,' says one woman, wrapped in the Ukrainian flag. (I also like the moment when she says to Nic 'can I hug you?' 'Sure,' says Robertson, with unmistakably British restraint. Or was he was just worried about unprofessional journalistic behaviour, or messing up his microphone?) See also this thread from the indomitable Ukrainian journalist Nataliya Gumenyuk (@ngumenyuk). But the real stunner is this unforgettable video clip of a young Ukrainian soldier running to embrace his grandmother, who is kneeling on the ground to thank the Ukrainian troops for her liberation – and perhaps God for her grandson's survival. I defy anyone with half a heart not to be moved by it.
One thing that stands out in these videos is the role of shared song and chants in sustaining people's fighting spirit and resilience. (The evolutionary psychologist Robin Dunbar once told me he thinks shared chants and rhythmic movement, creating group solidarity, came very early in the evolution of humankind, well before speech.) Also they powerful was a moment when the European flag was hoisted beside the Ukrainian one on the public building in Kherson.
'What time is it?' people asked a London Times reporter, '6 PM or 7 PM?' Russian occupation had compelled them to live on Russian time, one hour later than Ukrainian. Now they are back on European time. Freedom time.
Just a few days later came much grimmer news: the death of two Polish farmers because a Russian-made missile landed on them from across the nearby Ukrainian frontier. It seems almost certain that this was a stray S 300 Ukrainian air defence missile. But, even if it wasn't a missile fired by Russian forces, we should be absolutely clear about the true cause of their death, which was the Russian attack on civilian (particularly energy) infrastructure with some 96 missiles, to which Ukrainian air defences were responding.
There's absolutely no end to this war in sight. And I can't see how it ends, unless the West abandons its support for Ukraine under the pressure of economic crisis or there is some political change in Russia. Can you?
US democracy saved – and with it US support for Ukraine and Europe?
For some years now I've had a black humour competition with friends at Stanford about which of our democracies, the British or the American, is doing worse. But in the last couple of years, the US has clearly pulled ahead (i.e. behind) in this competition because of the way in which the most basic foundation of democracy – that elections are free and fair – has been so widely questioned (millions of Republicans saying Donald Trump won the 2020 election) and because of the shocking level of political violence.
At the same time, at almost every conference or meeting in Europe, someone will stand up at some point and say words to the effect of 'what if the US abandons us after the 2024 election?'
In both respects, last week's midterm elections were good news. Democracy won. Trump did significantly worse than anticipated, and it seems to me that the real danger of the US leaving Europe on its own to support Ukraine and face Putin's Russia substantially comes from Trump and the Trumpians. With another candidate, the rare bipartisan consensus in Congress to stand by Ukraine and stand up to Putin will probably hold. One should never, ever, count Trump out until he's really out, but in both these respects this was a good week not just for the US but also for Europe. Yet obviously we Europeans shouldn't relax. We still need to do more to be able to defend ourselves, against both military and non-military threats from Russia and China.
Meanwhile, on a visit to Prague 33 years after the Velvet Revolution…
Two days in a Prague wreathed in mist – still achingly beautiful, although almost as badly overrun by tourists as Venice. I was there thanks to the initiative of some of our students, to share our report on what young Europeans want Europe to do and to be (do take a look), as part of the Czech EU presidency, and on the occasion of the 33rd anniversary of the start of the Velvet Revolution in Prague, which I was so lucky to witness all those years ago.
We had breakfast with the country's Europe minister, Mikuláš Bek, in a cafe near the Charles University, where I was to lecture. It's now distinctly trendy, but he told us that it used to be a rundown old pub where, in the run-up to the Velvet Revolution, he and other students met to plan the protest on 17 November 1989 that actually launched the revolution. 33 years on, since the Czech Republic holds the presidency of the EU, he is coordinating the positions of countries like France and Germany in response to the war in Ukraine. Quite a trajectory.
Later, I had an interesting conversation with the Prime Minister, Petr Fiala, who actually founded the study of political science at the Masaryk University in Brno. He told me that he thinks the voices of central and east European states are now really counting in the European Council, perhaps for the first time.
Fiala heads a complicated five party coalition, which narrowly defeated the populist oligarch Andrej Babiš in the last election. Babiš was defeated partly thanks to the mobilisation of a great student-led civic movement called A Million Moments for Democracy, which sees itself very much in the tradition of Václav Havel. But now the danger is that Babiš comes back as president in next January's presidential election.
At the Charles University arts faculty building, which looks across the river to Prague Castle, the foyer was festooned with banners announcing a climate occupation strike, deliberately set for the week before the 17 November anniversary. The new cause for student activists. In fact, its organisers had emailed me in advance to warn me about this, adding that 'our event is by no means meant to disrespect your presence at the FA [Faculty of Arts] that we very much value'. Have there ever been such courteous protesters in the history of student protest? I was rather hoping they would disrupt my lecture, but nothing of the kind.
In the evening, we went with my old friends Michael Zantovsky and Misha Glenny, to the riverside pub just in front of Václav Havel's apartment where we used to hang out with Havel in his dissident playwright days. I think, looking down on his country today, he could be not entirely dissatisfied with his legacy.
… And beware the normalisation of the far right
My latest op-ed in the Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/02433224-248b-4dc5-b881-95a5d205e8e8
Thank you for this column, I enjoyed the combination of present and past in Prague. Is it true that no women are in the leadership there (as depicted in your photo and list of names) or are they just missing here? That would be unfortunate for CZ policy making and governance.