What makes me extremely crazy are all those tankers, most of them sanctioned, travelling unfettered through the Baltic Sea while N Europe does nothing. At least create a bottleneck and check every tanker’s paperwork and ensure environmental standards are met. Ukraine would gladly take them out but only when they are in Russian waters and empty and heading into Ust-Luga and Primorsk.
I've now beginning to mute all Substack commentators writing about Ukraine, as I've concluded none of them are actually interested in an Ukrainian victory. As is the norm across the platform, you write about defeating Putin, without even mentioning the frozen Russian assets in EU banks, which could deliver 100,000+ FREE cruise missiles to Ukraine, way more than are needed to crush the Russian war machine.
Ukraine has been developing it's Flamingo cruise missile for some time. I don't know how many it could produce how fast if funds were essentially unlimited.
If that was a bottleneck, the funds could also be used to produce more drones, which Ukraine may now be the world's expert at producing and using.
Two things to keep in mind:
1) The 100,000 figure is quite conservative, which you can see for yourself if you do the math, which I urge you to do. The math arrives at a figure of around 200,000 free cruise missiles, which I cut in half to avoid risk of exaggeration.
2) Nothing like 100,000 cruise missiles are needed. 10% of that may be enough. Even 1%.
Here's what I see happening. Discussion welcomed.
The EU has declined to release the frozen Russian assets. Instead they have put together a loan package which is supposed to support Ukraine for a year or two. Once that money runs out, the EU stance seems to be that it will then be "somebody else's" turn to fund the Ukraine war.
This continues a pattern that has existed since the start of the war. Give Ukraine enough money to continue the fight, but never enough to win.
And thus, the war drags on and on and on. And while that is happening, both Ukraine and the EU remain at risk.
The Russian war machine is already wobbling. What needs to happen next is to deliver the final blow by overwhelming the Russian war machine with a tsunami of new Ukrainian weapons. The frozen Russian assets in EU banks can accomplish that...
I believe the hesitancy to release those funds rests in the understanding that those funds will be needed to rebuilt Ukraine because, unlike after WWII, the US cannot be counted on to fund that as it did the rebuilding of Europe.
What Ukraine needs is more manpower, especially to man the innovative weapons they themselves are building.
And remember, the Russians like us Americans get easily tired of the blood and guts demanded by war. As Ukraine makes the war more visible and painful to individual Russians, we can see the dismay and frustration growing. Even in a dangerous dictatorship like Putin’s has a bridge too far.
I wrote book chapter once, on the differing effectiveness of the belligerent, forcible empire-building of the US, as against the politics of attraction pursued by the EU, which had just expanded massively eastward. One is clearly more ethical and, more importantly, effective than the other. You can see some more thoughts on the subject here:
Really timely and helpful read, but I have to raise one point. There is no such thing as Putin’s war and what needs defeating is Russia (read: moscow-centered terrorist organization)
A characteristically incisive piece—and the seventh point, about speaking to all the Russias, is the one I keep returning to, gets at something the West has quietly let erode: the basic capacity to understand Russia at all. Russian studies in Western universities are in worse shape now than during the Cold War. Departments have closed, chairs sit empty, language enrollment has collapsed by an order of magnitude since the late 1980s; a generation of specialists is retiring without replacements.
Strategic patience is the right frame. But patience requires literacy—and literacy demands investments the West hasn't made in thirty years: faculty positions, language programs, and the émigré magazines where the sharpest work is already happening. Otherwise, the West will keep being surprised by a country it has chosen not to learn.
I shared this opion piece in my Facebook profile with the following introduction. Since I found the vision and tips most interesting.
Een oude kennis uit Leuven, gewezen politicus, die nu in het Verre Oosten leeft, heeft mijn aandacht getrokken op bijgaande column met visie van de Britse senior historicus Timothy Garton Ash.
Zelf heb ik een abonnement op zijn teksten die hij deelt via Substack, waar ook mijn blog nu is gevestigd.
Het is inderdaad weer een verhelderende analyse van de situatie van Vladimir Putin als leider op het Kremlin, met heel wat concrete tips om de macht van de dictator in de komende jaren tegen te gaan.
Ken je Russische Belgen? Ga er mee in gesprek. Bevorder de publieke instemming met Europese onafhankelijke en performante defensie. Spreek je volksvertegenwoordigers aan op de noodzaak van verdere steun aan Oekraïne. Heb je contacten met Russen in high places? Ga in dialoog. Met de dictator zelf spreken heeft niet veel zin. TGA merkt terecht op: lang zittende dictators leven in een bubbel, zijn van de realiteit wel vaker afgesloten. Als je onze premier [Bart De Wever] soms ontmoet, kan je hem die piste dus ontraden.
Everything tried and tested and failed this war has only brought chaos nothing else only solution is diplomatic Ukraine and Russian should start direct talks and come to some reasonable solutions.
Abhishek I am interested in what you term reasonable solutions? It would seem that Russia has only maximalist demands eg to control all the Donbas parts of which it doesn't control. Why would Ukraine give up land it still controls?
A possible Donbas settlement could involve a self-governing autonomous region under Ukrainian sovereignty, protected by United Nations peacekeepers from neutral countries. Combined with ceasefire guarantees, demilitarization, and internationally monitored elections, it could reduce violence and end this war. Only direct talks can provide meaningful solutions.
Russia says its main concern is NATO expansion, Western weapons near its borders, and Ukraine becoming a hostile military outpost aligned with the United States. On the negotiations table Russia will be willing to come to an agreement but Ukraine has to refrain from misguided delusional goals which are set by European Union and NATO.
Whereas Trump is driven by 'do something ... this is something so just do it'.
USA also has to deal with the oligarchs who now drive US politics and for whom the wars in Israel, Iran and Russia are quite acceptable and fit with their autocratic, anti-democratic ambitions
USA has become, since the glorious victory on the nazi germans, and after noble and intelligent Barack Obama, increasingly a country lead by corrupt over-whealthy men.
Thank you TGA.
What makes me extremely crazy are all those tankers, most of them sanctioned, travelling unfettered through the Baltic Sea while N Europe does nothing. At least create a bottleneck and check every tanker’s paperwork and ensure environmental standards are met. Ukraine would gladly take them out but only when they are in Russian waters and empty and heading into Ust-Luga and Primorsk.
I've now beginning to mute all Substack commentators writing about Ukraine, as I've concluded none of them are actually interested in an Ukrainian victory. As is the norm across the platform, you write about defeating Putin, without even mentioning the frozen Russian assets in EU banks, which could deliver 100,000+ FREE cruise missiles to Ukraine, way more than are needed to crush the Russian war machine.
I give up. Good luck to you.
As a Belgian Citizen, where the frozen assets lay, I am not impressed by your defaitist attitude and simple solutions.
I assure you kind sir, I do not give a shit.
Do these cruise missiles exist?
Ukraine has been developing it's Flamingo cruise missile for some time. I don't know how many it could produce how fast if funds were essentially unlimited.
If that was a bottleneck, the funds could also be used to produce more drones, which Ukraine may now be the world's expert at producing and using.
Two things to keep in mind:
1) The 100,000 figure is quite conservative, which you can see for yourself if you do the math, which I urge you to do. The math arrives at a figure of around 200,000 free cruise missiles, which I cut in half to avoid risk of exaggeration.
2) Nothing like 100,000 cruise missiles are needed. 10% of that may be enough. Even 1%.
Here's what I see happening. Discussion welcomed.
The EU has declined to release the frozen Russian assets. Instead they have put together a loan package which is supposed to support Ukraine for a year or two. Once that money runs out, the EU stance seems to be that it will then be "somebody else's" turn to fund the Ukraine war.
This continues a pattern that has existed since the start of the war. Give Ukraine enough money to continue the fight, but never enough to win.
And thus, the war drags on and on and on. And while that is happening, both Ukraine and the EU remain at risk.
The Russian war machine is already wobbling. What needs to happen next is to deliver the final blow by overwhelming the Russian war machine with a tsunami of new Ukrainian weapons. The frozen Russian assets in EU banks can accomplish that...
At no cost to the EU.
And at no cost to Ukraine.
Victory. For free.
Of little interest to Substack commentators.
I believe the hesitancy to release those funds rests in the understanding that those funds will be needed to rebuilt Ukraine because, unlike after WWII, the US cannot be counted on to fund that as it did the rebuilding of Europe.
What Ukraine needs is more manpower, especially to man the innovative weapons they themselves are building.
And remember, the Russians like us Americans get easily tired of the blood and guts demanded by war. As Ukraine makes the war more visible and painful to individual Russians, we can see the dismay and frustration growing. Even in a dangerous dictatorship like Putin’s has a bridge too far.
It was not the EU that rejected the release of the Russian funds, but the Belgian government.
I wrote book chapter once, on the differing effectiveness of the belligerent, forcible empire-building of the US, as against the politics of attraction pursued by the EU, which had just expanded massively eastward. One is clearly more ethical and, more importantly, effective than the other. You can see some more thoughts on the subject here:
https://fraserk.substack.com/p/base-and-patrol-strongholds-and-tribute
Really timely and helpful read, but I have to raise one point. There is no such thing as Putin’s war and what needs defeating is Russia (read: moscow-centered terrorist organization)
A characteristically incisive piece—and the seventh point, about speaking to all the Russias, is the one I keep returning to, gets at something the West has quietly let erode: the basic capacity to understand Russia at all. Russian studies in Western universities are in worse shape now than during the Cold War. Departments have closed, chairs sit empty, language enrollment has collapsed by an order of magnitude since the late 1980s; a generation of specialists is retiring without replacements.
Strategic patience is the right frame. But patience requires literacy—and literacy demands investments the West hasn't made in thirty years: faculty positions, language programs, and the émigré magazines where the sharpest work is already happening. Otherwise, the West will keep being surprised by a country it has chosen not to learn.
Wonderful both in the Guardian and again here!
Thanks, great read, fully agree.
In addition,
Europe remember how much it took in terms of help in investment
https://tilmaneichstdt.substack.com/p/soviet-victory-over-nazi-germany?r=3en3nm&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=title
Not sure who you're talking to.
I shared this opion piece in my Facebook profile with the following introduction. Since I found the vision and tips most interesting.
Een oude kennis uit Leuven, gewezen politicus, die nu in het Verre Oosten leeft, heeft mijn aandacht getrokken op bijgaande column met visie van de Britse senior historicus Timothy Garton Ash.
Zelf heb ik een abonnement op zijn teksten die hij deelt via Substack, waar ook mijn blog nu is gevestigd.
Het is inderdaad weer een verhelderende analyse van de situatie van Vladimir Putin als leider op het Kremlin, met heel wat concrete tips om de macht van de dictator in de komende jaren tegen te gaan.
Ken je Russische Belgen? Ga er mee in gesprek. Bevorder de publieke instemming met Europese onafhankelijke en performante defensie. Spreek je volksvertegenwoordigers aan op de noodzaak van verdere steun aan Oekraïne. Heb je contacten met Russen in high places? Ga in dialoog. Met de dictator zelf spreken heeft niet veel zin. TGA merkt terecht op: lang zittende dictators leven in een bubbel, zijn van de realiteit wel vaker afgesloten. Als je onze premier [Bart De Wever] soms ontmoet, kan je hem die piste dus ontraden.
Everything tried and tested and failed this war has only brought chaos nothing else only solution is diplomatic Ukraine and Russian should start direct talks and come to some reasonable solutions.
Abhishek I am interested in what you term reasonable solutions? It would seem that Russia has only maximalist demands eg to control all the Donbas parts of which it doesn't control. Why would Ukraine give up land it still controls?
And what would the Russian position be?
A possible Donbas settlement could involve a self-governing autonomous region under Ukrainian sovereignty, protected by United Nations peacekeepers from neutral countries. Combined with ceasefire guarantees, demilitarization, and internationally monitored elections, it could reduce violence and end this war. Only direct talks can provide meaningful solutions.
Reasonable plan but why would Russia but that? Surely Putin would see that as defeat?
Russia says its main concern is NATO expansion, Western weapons near its borders, and Ukraine becoming a hostile military outpost aligned with the United States. On the negotiations table Russia will be willing to come to an agreement but Ukraine has to refrain from misguided delusional goals which are set by European Union and NATO.
Above all STAND FIRM!
Whereas Trump is driven by 'do something ... this is something so just do it'.
USA also has to deal with the oligarchs who now drive US politics and for whom the wars in Israel, Iran and Russia are quite acceptable and fit with their autocratic, anti-democratic ambitions
USA has become, since the glorious victory on the nazi germans, and after noble and intelligent Barack Obama, increasingly a country lead by corrupt over-whealthy men.