History of the Present (fortnight ending 2 December 2023)
Can Europe manage migration in a way compatible with Europe’s values?
Europe's soft power is threatening to undermine Europe's soft power. Harvard’s Joseph Nye defines soft power as the power to attract. A recent global poll confirms once again that Europe has this in profusion. If you ask people in countries as diverse as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, South Africa and Brazil where they would like to live, if not in their own country, most of them choose the United States or Europe. By contrast, almost nobody wants to live in China or Russia.
And right there is Europe's problem. So attractive is Europe that millions of people would like to move here. Hundreds of thousands will actually try, risking their lives on flimsy boats across the Mediterranean, or by other perilous routes. 'Europe or death', said one. But the fear of uncontrolled mass migration is driving European voters to xenophobic populist parties who not merely exploit but actively stir up civilisational panic about it.
2023 is increasingly looking like a new 2015. The refugee crisis that began that year clearly boosted the vote for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany and Austria’s Freedom Party – not to mention, for Brexit. Now the AfD is again polling strongly, even in prosperous West German regions such as Bavaria and Hesse. The Freedom Party is topping the opinion polls in Austria. On Wednesday 22 November, the anti-Islamic populist Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party scored a shocking success in national elections in the Netherlands. And we have elections to the European Parliament next June.
In response, mainstream parties are themselves advocating increasingly harsh measures to control illegal immigration. One European head of government told me recently he thought Europe needed to do 'something outrageous' to address this issue. I was tempted to answer: aren't we already? Isn't it outrageous that Greek coastguards have been credibly accused of pushing backrefugee boats in violation of the well-established principle of non-refoulement? Isn't it outrageous that the EU has been complicit in Libyan forces dragging back would-be migrants into terrible detention camps? Isn't it outrageous that the Italian government of Giorgia Meloni is deterring even private charity rescue vessels from saving people from drowning in the Mediterranean? Isn't it outrageous that the British government seriously contemplates abandoning the European Convention on Human Rights, just to send a few hundred asylum-seekers to Rwanda?
People all around the world see the wonderful freedom of movement enjoyed by Europeans inside the Schengen area as being bought at the expense of their own, tightly restricted travel to Europe. Ask any Turk or Indian about their experiences while trying to get a Schengen or UK visa. The lurid rhetoric of hard right populists like Britain's former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who has described illegal immigration as an 'invasion' and protesters against Israel's military action in Gaza as 'pro-Palestinian mobs', also risks alienating the millions of people with a migration background who are already living in Europe.
Europe's soft power is not just about its prosperity, welfare systems and quality of life. It's also about freedom, the rule of law, tolerance and respect for human rights. In that same poll, respondents around the world said that Vladmir Putin's Russia is not part of Europe 'when it comes to its current political values'. Europe is associated with a set of values. But Europe is not credible as a continent of values if it violates them itself, precisely at the points where people from the rest of the world encounter it: at its borders, above all, but also in the reception of asylum-seekers and the inflammatory mischaracterisation of people of migrant background already inside those borders.
There's no question that migration to Europe has to be managed. The Brexit campaign's slogan 'Take back control!' was so brilliant precisely because it touched the heart of voters' fear – that migration was out of control. Now former German president Joachim Gauck is talking about Kontrollverlust, the loss of control, which sounds familiar. If European governments don't manage to convey a sense of migration being under control to their electorates within the next six months, next June's European elections may see the EU wrenched sharply to the illiberal right. Yet managing migration has to be done in ways that are safe, humane and legal, or Europe is betraying its own values.
Fail either in one direction or the other and the manner in which Europe addresses the consequences of its 'power to attract' will start subverting another important aspect of its soft power – its values. Here is Europe's soft power dilemma.
If quoting, please use this link and cite the original publication in the Financial Times, 24 November 2023
Return to Westen
I was delighted to return to the village of Westen, Lower Saxony, which my father’s gun troop occupied in 1945 and which plays a large role at the beginning of my book Homelands (in German Europa: Eine Persönliche Geschichte), as I evoke the hell that was Europe in 1945.
In a beautifully organised event, the local Heimatverein had me talking to a packed church, including several of the local people who feature in the book. They also asked me to unveil a plaque in memory of all victims of war and dictatorship. This will be placed in the local cemetery, not far from the graves of those German child soldiers who died at Hitler’s behest in a futile attempt to defend the village from its liberators.
I talked about the wounded soldiers and fresh war graves I recently saw in Lviv, Ukraine (see my earlier History of the Present newsletter.)
‘Never again!’ says Europe; and then it happens again.
Thank you for your response which identifies my indecision, created I think by media pressure which is a whole new topic.
Talking of media and its ability to shape or change thinking, what is your view about reparations for those whose ancestors were enslaved? Where does this thinking end? What about the Romans....? Etc....
Thank you for mankind me think, Happy New Year!
Thought provoking, I wish I had an answer to it.....